World Economy

World economy in the true sense depends on Mega economies, starting from US, Japan, Russia, China and up to a small extent(Minors) a composite virtual union of Singapore, Hongkong, India, Brazil, Taiwan, UK,France and Germany. If the Megas/Majors (Note Russia is on the free ride from Minor to Mega) do well, we all do well and everything would be hunky-dory. The component of Megas would be Crude, Technology, Currency (as a commodity like UK), defense entities that serve as drive engine. The Component of Minors would be Agri/Pasturs/Forest/Fishing, Service, Semi-conductor, telecom, chemicals. The definition of majors and minors is purely at the aggregate level and not at the per-capita level, since a minor like UK, France are light years apart from China, Russia from per capita point of view.

The third component, called as other, would include the rest that would hardly drive/non-drive the world.

There is more way than one to classify the World economy, the other being non-novel - emerging, developed and under-developed economies. BRIC is Emerging as we all know, which was over hyped to be future driver, only of late being realized that It follows the Whims, whips and Whishes of Global superpowers (read economic superpowers). But the future holds bright beneath the horizon for BRIC.

The irony of 21st century is when Megas shudder, the Minors get concious and hide into cocoons . The not so well happen(read Under developed countries) to starve as we have seen of late when Agri rich isolate themselves with their involuntary exports. The M2 s of the world US of A and the oriental Japan have lot at stakes, if we realize, how the world economy shivers when they sneeze more often than required. Though the acceptable expectation would have been a diversified conglomerate polarized economies. That day seems to be not so far away, but not quite yet. Watch out for the logical Entities like Euro, BRIC and SE economies (Include India)

The one way to solve the contemporary economic problems and dependencies would be to multiply monies. To start the next level of innovations, discoveries that would drive the cost and expenditure towards South. Some examples for the same would be Solar energy, Space exploration, Nuclear fuels used at domestic level as opposed to industry, Bio-fuels, etc.,to name a few. To address the issue, we need to look into the focal point. The focus of attention goes to Dark continent countries, Argentina, Asian economies and some regions of developing economies. These regions are dearth of opportunities, resource management, entrepreneurship culture, freedom of economy and an array of issues. These is where the World Organizations like UN in general should have had pivotal role, but alas had failed. The need for including Minors in UN would become a matter of necessity and design than political objectives which some Vetos oppose with Vested interest for further expansion

Morality & Rationality

What is morality ?

The Wiki Says this -

The ability to distinguish good and evil or right and wrong, right or good conduct; Motivation based on ideas of right and wrong.

Does morality has absolute meaning? Is it a grea area? Would hunting animals for survival be termed as moral?If involuntary hunting is immoral, so does it mean non-survival is moral ? I would define morality as a code of values for right form of existence - not necessarily optimal but behavioral. So if non-survival is moral then it concludes that morality are just principles and not the absolute rationalities. From involuntary hunting perspective non-survival is moral and survival is rational. This makes morality stacked against rationality in some unavoidable circumstances.

When contradictions exists, chosing morality makes one irrational and otherwise. There are four forms of existence - One which is moral but not rational - supported by people of the type Social - " Rights" . The one which is rational but not moral - Mostly individuals, Capitalists. Exceptions exists in this case, when Capitalists are both moral and rational. The third form being - moral and rational - true individuals, true industrialists/capitalists - ( like Mr. Gates) ,and finally the immoral and irrational - the one driven by instincts.

Morality is like doctrine, set defined beliefs associated with a sect, group, following, ideologues, hypothesis propagandists etc., They are outside the realms of logic and usually define a specified behavior for mankind for his overall well being

While rationality has got nothing to do with behavior. It is driven by the logic and analysis. It is driven by the most optimal goal, It is more akin of a machine instructed to perform specific operations to complete a task(s) assigned

Financial Turmoil

What with Options for financial planning taking a beating, the million $ question of the day is how to think clearly in the era of "Financial Turmoil"

To begin with let's first identify the status quo issues that appears inescapable

a) Inflationary pressure - at decade high. This force would off course would have its impact on input cost for manufactures, wage hikes for firms, etc. The investors* would always aim to obtain greater return from the markets beating inflation

investors* - any aspiring investor whose one of the aim for investing, would be to beat inflation

b) Securities performance - Reaching new record lows, making difficult for the retail investors to stay invested and expect reasonable returns - thanks to the systematic pull out of foreign investment and claiming the market to be less attractive

c) Industry performance - Thanks to the low average wage inflation across industries, would prompt investor to have a rethinking on the investment and financial planning

d) High Interest rates - This would make loans dearer and would leave us with less savings for reinvestment and expenditure

e) Housing market - Following the trend of metal bust, it is witnessing a slow down at a global level

Having identified some of the basic burning issues handy, an appropriate optimal solution has to be applied for the same.

(i) For retail investors, who have already invested should stay invested and not press the panic button. They should look for averaging and buy more stocks to make the security more cost effective. They should also consider investing in blue chip firms. They must avoid speculation and take rational decisions

(ii) Identify commodities that seems to be giving good returns, say they must consider investing in Gold deposits which has proved to be a decent investment, considering a good 10 % returns per annual.Investment in gold could happen in the form of certificates or bars or accounts or they can be even traded like shares in Gold Exchange traded fund.

(iii) Identify dormant amount in the savings which would not be disposed of say 1 year. Keep certain percentage of dormant amount (depending on financial goals) in Fixed deposits and/or Mutual funds for a period <= 1 (an example)

(iv) Never seeking a loan with the objective of investing in "investables", except for real estate/housing

(v) Like Gold, certificates of the Silver to can be obtained which follows a direct co-relation. Silver accounts could also be opened

(vi) For low risk appetite individuals, the Debt investment is a good option which can return more than the average inflation.

Indians Sided by Oz in front of Siders? (Read Sydney Siders) ....To be Continued

Though I am as much a cricket lover as an average Indian is, I must say & confess that I am not an expert in understanding Cricket Nuances at its core level.But that would not stop me to write something about the Cricket episode "Sydney" as I would like to Call it that has occupied our minds perhaps of late.

I understand everyone of us have lots of questions and some (may be all) of us are infuriated about the Sydney. Unsurprisingly the media has come up with master analysis on its own rational/irrational interpretations. Some of them do give the technical explanations on whys of the events that happened. Some justify the events using their interpretive Logic. Some reflect the sentiments that we hold so close to our heart. Some do all these things at an appropriate mix. It makes a good read overall.
1)But sometimes I get the feeling that Do we also look at the issues from gray perspective. Should We look at it that way, just like tautological analogy.

2)The next moment I feel that there is nothing called as gray and everything is either correct or incorrect but not both. Everything when drilled down to its premises would yield its true color. It would answer in Yes or No.

Some of us hold the view 1 & the other hold the View2. Let me tell you it is a tough call between 1 & 2. I would stick with 2 because i share that value

Let me now list a gist of questions that I would like to share my thoughts on

1) Should Harbhajan be banned for x matches?
2) Should Ponting be sacked?
3) Should BCCI have recalled India?
4) Should Bucknor be asked to go by Speed?

If what has happened to these things is one thing, what should have happened is another. I am interested in the latter.

**
Let me quote the absolute as it exists today. There was no technical evidence to prove that Harbhajan hurled racial abuse to Symonds. I do not even confess that if Harbhajan did say that or not. Both parties disagree with each other which means one was speaking the truth.If Harbhajan did not cross the line then it would be gross injustice to punish him. Such events would destroy the spirit of the game.
If he did then we have a wide open debate. Let's assume he said it. When we do that we must also remember the facts that started it. I would like to call it a fact because both parties agreed that 'Symonds' proved 'Harbhajan' . So irrespective of the gravity of the situation the fact remains that it was a reactive response. Should reactive response get some allowances It depends? I don't think so. Since Symonds was the initiator of nasty hoopla, ironically i feel that , that needs to be investigated first and addressed appropriately.

Assuming Harbhajan did say what he should not, should he be punished. Yes if assumption is correct. I would say this even though this is a bias. Since we know the naked fact that some teams (no name calling please ) get special allowances when they have crossed lines (Read racial abuses) as many times as their instincts wanted to. So the fact of the matter is the system itself is biased and relies on selective judgment. I would also regret my view point that Harbhajan be punished if assumption is true. But remember that I am still using the word assumption and we should not get conclusions based on assumptions, but only on knowledge and rationality.

So let's give the benefit of the doubt and let's strive to put a more advance technical detection systems that can validate the claims and counterclaims. That the system is defective, Biased is out of context here. :( . I am sad that I cannot involve it as a parameter to involve that into discussion, I am bound by truth, I am bound by soundness of judgement, I am tied by rational mind though my heart says Bhajji is non faulty in either case.

my thoughts

Though it's acceptable to have diversified Views and ideologies, it's criminal to behave and act hypocritically to suit or achieve One's needs and Objectives.


Trust is the bridge that can connect two island people.

The Privilege to be civilized is the biggest gift one can get.

Innovation leads to the loss of Jobs.It also helps in Creating new jobs. That way people end up doing better things. So innovation Leads to move up the value chain from Job profile perspective.

The Path to Heaven is just go through the Hell. I am Not aware of any underground tunnel. But remember The Heaven has many exit doors.To stay in Heaven remember the lessons of your hell days or else have huge fortunes [:D]

Value-add is the drive for Communication

Assumption can lead to Premature fissure

Happiness is all about being proud about everything/anything about yourself

Customer is neither the King, nor Vendor a Slave, they are just Trade-Partners

The World economy dynamics should morally co-relate to the hardwork of an individual and not forex advantage/disadvantage

The extent of humanness of a man depends on his persistent , objective & moral thinking

It is not possible to understand subjective world from an Objective angle

The Purpose of life is an attempt of approximating your ability to Savour its good Attributes

If Ignorance is bliss, then the blessing is "misery"

Life is the manifestation of the choices you make on a day to day basis


- Nagaraj Kura

Fuel

new

Planning

Planning is vital at all moments of life as well as in all spheres of life. Planning is needed either for excellence or for mere survival or for numerous reasons as the case may be. It can be looked as an organization of ideas which are byproduct of thoughts. Planning can be done for a certain period of time or the timeframe itself could be imaginary or it may be even results based or event based. I mean Plan execution need not be a simple straightforward scheduled sequence of executions. Plan can be at any time halted; it can be kept on hold or be replaced by altogether a different plan. If the results intended by the plan are forthcoming or the result happens prematurely then the plan can be halted completely. Sometimes plan has to be stopped because of numerous constraints in life.

Even though its reasonable to have a plan in life, its even more reasonable to be unassuming all the expected results from a Plan. Plan itself for the plan sake can just be a guide to follow. Even though plan itself is limited by life constraints and other constraints, ironically a plan itself is a constraint. Plan can be looked as an antithesis of lateral thinking. While forcing oneself to think laterally always could be a part of the plan.

How do we measure the efficacy of a plan? The answer is very complex. The answer is complex because the ideas that build the plan are characteristic of an individual or a group. No two ideas that crop up in two different minds are similar. There is always a difference. When the ideas could be different, the plan which is a collection of ideas can be substantially unique; the quality of ideas for a given plan depends on the individual. Though the quality of different ideas for an individual varies with time, subject and scenario the average quality can be quantified. That is every individual has a fixed value of 'idea quotient'. The variations could be neglected for the sake of simplicity of discussion. What I am trying to get here is, due to the complex nature of ideas and plans it is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of a plan.

Even though a plan appears to be effective and yielding it can never be termed as a correct plan. However the same plan can be given different shades like successful plan, exceptional plan or effective plan but it reality it may not be the correct plan. The success of the plan could be merely coincidental. The coincidence rate and the probability could be so high that it may be easily believed as a correct plan. The so called effective plan or successful plan could have worked because the conditions around the plan could be conducive. The conscious level where the plan was executed could be low. By the term Conscious level I mean the capability of human intelligence. Human intelligence is evolving but has not reached its achievable level. Under such conditions even a good looking plan can be deceptive. Since human beings are less blessed beings an incorrect plan can deceptively look accurate. Even the prediction of the efficacy of the plan is just a mirage. The plan could be defective or adulterated even though it has got the desired results. It is important to understand this because the same plan could not have worked if certain parameters are changed, like if the surrounding conditions become complex or the plan is executed in a high intelligence level planet. So is it impossible to know or evaluate a plan? Is it difficult to analyze a plan? The answer to these questions is challenging as well. It required research and effort.

There can be some probable answers or ideas to these questions.

i) The plan which is a collection of ideas has to be analyzed at the microscopic level.

ii) The ideas have to be evaluated somehow. It should be somehow transformed to a mathematical entity. This task is onerous and difficult.

iii) Tools have to be developed to the above tasks. Human intelligence at the current levels is too mediocre for these tasks.

iv) Once the ideas are computed and transformed, then it has to be stored and then subjected to mathematical computations. Lots of fuzzy algorithms can be used to do these transformations

v) The computation task has to be handled to a cluster computer or may be to a super computer. Then the results have to obtained.

This is just a possibility and a blueprint as to what can be done to resolve the issue. Either these ideas can be evolved and developed or a different mechanism can be devised to solve the problem.

There are probably few things skipped here. Even the surrounding conditions on which the plan is developed, the difference in intelligence levels and other conditions can also be evaluated and subjected to the final computation of the results that can be delivered by a plan